Comprehensive analysis of prognostic biomarkers for immunotherapy response in patients with advanced malignant melanoma
Highlight box
Key findings
• This study demonstrated that neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) ≥3 and the presence of liver metastases were independent predictors.
What is known and what is new?
• Melanoma is a highly malignant tumor and is associated with a poor prognosis. Due to the particular tissue subtype and genetic background of the Chinese population, the efficacy of immunotherapy monotherapy in Chinese patients with melanoma is unsatisfactory. Therefore, there is an urgent need to identify biomarkers that can predict the efficacy of immunotherapy in this population.
• The prognostic biomarkers for the efficacy of immunotherapy in patients with advanced melanoma were a number of metastatic sites ≥5, liver metastasis, bone metastasis, NLR ≥3, abnormal albumin level, and KMT2A mutation. Of these, NLR ≥3 and the presence of liver metastases were independent predictors.
What is the implication, and what should change now?
• Our study identified potential prognostic biomarkers, which may provide a basis for screening advanced melanoma populations, particularly suited to immunotherapy. Further research with a large sample size in specified treatment settings is needed to ascertain the prognostic value of biomarkers for immunotherapy response in patients with advanced melanoma.
Introduction
Malignant melanoma, originating from melanocytes, is highly aggressive, prone to early metastasis, and is associated with a poor prognosis (1). Based on etiology and genetics, melanoma is classified into four subtypes: acral, mucosal, chronic sun-damaged, and nonchronic sun-damaged (including unknown primary site). Cutaneous melanoma is predominant in Western populations, whereas acral and mucosal melanomas are more common in the Chinese population. In recent years, there has been a rapid increase in melanoma incidence in China, with about 20,000 new cases annually, and the mortality rate is also rising rapidly (2).
Complete surgical resection is considered the best option for cure in patients with early-stage melanoma. For patients with advanced melanoma, conventional chemotherapy was the main treatment before the advent of immunotherapy and targeted therapy. However, the efficacy of chemotherapy monotherapy is low. In randomized clinical trials, no single chemotherapy drug improved overall survival (OS), and the objective response rate (ORR) was 5–20% (3). A systematic review of 41 clinical trials reported that combination chemotherapy yields a higher ORR but usually at the cost of greater toxicity and without conferring significant survival benefits (4). A meta-analysis of biochemotherapy similarly found no improvement in survival time despite an increased ORR (5).
With the advent of immunotherapy and targeted therapy, the survival rate of patients with advanced melanoma has been substantially improved. Compared with chemotherapy, immunotherapy has relatively fewer side effects (6). Previous studies have reported that the median progression-free survival (mPFS) of patients with advanced cutaneous melanoma treated with anti-programmed cell death receptor 1 (anti-PD-1) monotherapy is 5–7 months, the median OS (mOS) is 33–36 months, and the ORR is about 30–40% (7-10). Although anti-PD-1 antibodies have improved the survival time of patients with advanced melanoma as compared with conventional chemotherapy, their efficacy as monotherapy is still limited, especially in the Chinese population, in which the acral and mucosal subtypes predominate (11). Therefore, combination therapy strategies based on immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) such as anti-PD-1 and anti-cytotoxic T lymphocyte-associated antigen 4 (anti-CTLA-4) have become a hotspot in the field of tumor therapy.
Although chemotherapy has been supplanted by immune and targeted therapies to a certain extent, it still plays an important role in the treatment for melanoma. Chemotherapy can be used as a second- or third-line treatment after the failure of immunotherapy and targeted therapy. Evidence suggests that chemotherapy can provide clinical benefits to patients who have experienced disease progression after immunotherapy (12,13) or when immunotherapy fails.
Notably, most previous melanoma prognostic studies focused merely on single clinical or laboratory indicators. Comprehensive analyses combining baseline clinical characteristics, hematological inflammatory markers, and NGS genetic mutation data remain insufficient for Chinese advanced melanoma cohorts. Although several metastatic and hematological risk factors have been identified, real-world multi-dimensional prognostic evidence in Chinese patients is still lacking.
In this study, we conducted a comprehensive statistical analysis of the clinical factors and molecular biomarkers in 62 patients with advanced or unresectable malignant melanoma undergoing immunotherapy. The aim was to identify prognostic indicators related to melanoma immunotherapy in order to guide the treatment of patients with advanced melanoma and to improve the survival rate. We present this article in accordance with the REMARK reporting checklist (available at https://tcr.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/tcr-2026-0957/rc).
Methods
Patient population and treatment
Sixty-two patients with advanced or unresectable malignant melanoma who were admitted to Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital from February 2019 to October 2022 were retrospectively included in this study. The study was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki and its subsequent amendments. The study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Medical School, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China (No. 2022-170-02) and informed consent was taken from all the patients. All enrolled patients had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status of 0–2 and had received at least one line of systemic anti-tumor treatment. Patients with uncontrolled severe infections, autoimmune diseases, or incomplete clinical data were excluded. All patients received treatment regimens based on ICIs, including monotherapy with immunotherapy, combination of immunotherapy with chemotherapy, targeted therapy, antiangiogenic therapy, radiotherapy, and dual immunotherapy. Clinical characteristics, including age, sex, tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage (8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer), primary lesion site, subtype, metastatic site, and line of therapy, were recorded. Baseline peripheral blood biomarkers, including neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and serum albumin, were uniformly collected within 7 days prior to the initial ICI administration.
Endpoints
All radiological evaluations, including computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), were performed in strict accordance with the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) version 1.1. After treatment initiation, radiological re-examinations were conducted every 6–8 weeks to dynamically evaluate tumor lesions, ensuring consistent imaging intervals and minimizing lead-time bias in survival analysis. PFS was defined as the time from the date of the first treatment dose to the first occurrence of disease progression or death from any cause. OS was defined as the time from the date of the first treatment dose to death from any cause. All surviving patients received regular follow-up until the end of the follow-up cutoff date.
Sample collection
At baseline, tumor tissues from either biopsies or surgical resections were collected and formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded. A next-generation sequencing (NGS)–based gene panel assay, performed by Geneseeq Technology (Nanjing, China)—a laboratory accredited under the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA), the College of American Pathologists (CAP), and ISO 15189—was employed to profile tumor mutation burden (TMB), clonal mutations, and other genetic alterations in accordance with the approved protocols.
Prior to treatment, peripheral blood was drawn for biomarker analyses, processed within 2 hours, and then used to compute the NLR and albumin levels.
Library preparation and sequencing
Cell-free DNA (cfDNA) was isolated from plasma via the QIAmp Circulating Nucleic Acid Kit (Qiagen, Hilden, Germany). Genomic DNA from surgical tumor specimens and leukocytes was extracted with the DNeasy Blood & Tissue Kit (Qiagen). The purity of the extracted genomic DNA was assessed on a Nanodrop 2000 instrument (Thermo Fisher Scientific, Waltham, MA, USA). Each DNA sample was quantified with a Qubit 3.0 fluorometer and the dsDNA HS Assay Kit (Life Technologies, Thermo Fisher Scientific) in accordance with the manufacturer’s instructions.
Sequencing libraries were constructed with a modified version of the KAPA Hyper Prep Kit (Roche, Basel, Switzerland). Briefly, for tumor tissue and normal control samples, 1–2 µg of genomic DNA was sheared into fragments of approximately 350 bp via a M220 Ultrasonicator (Covaris, Woburn, MA, USA). This material then underwent end-repair, A-tailing, and ligation to indexed sequencing adapters, which was followed by size selection with Agencourt AMPure XP beads (Beckman Coulter, Brea, CA, USA). For plasma samples, up to 50 ng of cfDNA was fragmented and processed via an adapted protocol involving end-repair, A-tailing, and ligation to a custom adapter carrying a unique molecular identifier. Subsequently, polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification was performed with demultiplexing index primers, and the resulting cfDNA libraries were recovered with Agencourt AMPure XP beads.
Distinctly indexed libraries were pooled at defined ratios to reach a total input of 2 µg. Human Cot-1 DNA (Life Technologies) and xGen Universal blocking oligos (Integrated DNA Technologies, Coralville, IA, USA) were added as blocking reagents. Hybridization capture was carried out with custom xGen Lockdown probes (Integrated DNA Technologies) targeting 437 genes. The capture procedure included Dynabeads M-270 (Life Technologies) with the xGen Lockdown hybridization and wash kit (Integrated DNA Technologies), which were conducted according to the manufacturers’ instructions. Captured libraries were then subjected to on‑bead PCR amplification in KAPA HiFi HotStart ReadyMix (KAPA Biosystems, Wilmington, MA, USA) and purified once more with Agencourt AMPure XP beads.
Library concentration was determined via quantitative PCR via the KAPA Library Quantification Kit (KAPA Biosystems), and fragment length was assessed with the Agilent 2100 Bioanalyzer (Agilent Technologies, Santa Clara, CA, USA). After enrichment, libraries were sequenced on a HiSeq4000 platform (Illumina, San Diego, CA, USA) according to the manufacturer’s instructions.
Mutation calling
For quality control of FASTQ files, Trimmomatic (14) was applied to trim low‑quality bases (leading/trailing quality below 30) and remove N bases. The filtered reads were then aligned to the human reference genome (hg19) via the BurrowsWheeler Aligner (15). In accordance with the local realignment around known insertions and deletions (indels) and base quality score recalibration with Genome Analysis Toolkit v.3.4.0, PCR duplicates were eliminated with Picard tools (Broad Institute, Cambridge, MA, USA).
Singlenucleotide variants (SNVs) and indels were called with VarScan2, with a variant allele frequency threshold of 0.01 being applied for tissue samples and 0.001 for cfDNA samples. Identified SNVs and indels were annotated via ANNOVAR (16) to obtain variant type, database of single nucleotide polymorphisms (dbSNP) ID, clinical annotations, and protein impact predictions from Sorting Intolerant from Tolerant (SIFT) (17) and PolyPhen (18). Germline mutations were excluded via comparison with matched wholeblood controls. Copy number variations (CNVs) were analyzed with CNVkit (19); gains were defined as a depth ratio >2.0 (tissue) or >1.6 (cfDNA) and losses as a depth ratio <0.6.
We defined the chromosomal instability score as the average percentage of the genome displaying aberrant copy number (log2 depth ratio >0.2 or <−0.2) across all autosomes, weighted by the number of chromosomes analyzed. A stepwise approach was adopted to identify the optimal cutoff value: hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated at various confidence intervals (CIs) cutoffs, and the best cutoff was selected by comparing the HRs and the widths of their 95% CIs. To validate this cutoff, Kaplan‑Meier survival curves were generated to compare the PFS and OS between the high‑ and low‑risk groups.
TMB calculation
TMB was defined as the total count of nonsynonymous somatic mutations, including missense, nonsense, splice‑site, in‑frame, and frameshift alterations.
Statistical analysis
The Fisher’s exact test was used for the comparison of proportions between groups. Patient survival was analyzed via Kaplan-Meier curves, and statistical differences were analyzed with log-rank tests. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed via Cox proportional hazards regression models in order to determine the relationship between variables and survival outcomes. All statistical analyses in this study were performed with R software (The R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria), and a two-sided P value of <0.05 was considered significant.
Results
Patient characteristics and prognostic values of the clinicopathological features
The clinical characteristics of 62 patients with advanced or unresectable malignant melanoma treated with immunotherapy between February 2019 and October 2022 were statistically analyzed (Table 1). The median age at diagnosis was 59.5 years [interquartile range (IQR), 21–79 years]. The number of male and female patients was similar. The mucosal subtype predominated (54.8%), followed by the acral subtype (30.6%) and the cutaneous subtype (11.3%). The majority of patients had stage IV disease (93.5%). More than half of the patients had lymph node metastases (51.6%). The most common metastatic site was the lung (33.9%), followed by the liver (27.4%) and bone (14.5%). The majority of patients received first-line immunotherapy (82.3%). Among the patients receiving immunotherapy (Table 2), 32.3% had two metastatic sites, which was the largest proportion, and 8.1% had more than five metastatic sites.
Table 1
| Characteristics | N (%) |
|---|---|
| Age (years) | |
| ≥60 | 31 (50.0) |
| <60 | 31 (50.0) |
| Sex | |
| Female | 32 (51.6) |
| Male | 30 (48.4) |
| Subtype | |
| Acral | 19 (30.6) |
| Mucosal | 34 (54.8) |
| Cutaneous | 7 (11.3) |
| NA | 2 (3.3) |
| Stage | |
| III | 4 (6.5) |
| IV | 58 (93.5) |
| Metastatic site | |
| Pulmonary | 21 (33.9) |
| Liver | 17 (27.4) |
| Bone | 9 (14.5) |
| Lymph node | 32 (51.6) |
| Immunotherapy line | |
| First | 51 (82.3) |
| Second | 9 (14.5) |
| Third | 2 (3.2) |
NA, not available.
Table 2
| Metastatic sites, n | Patients, n | Constituent ratio (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | 29 |
| 2 | 20 | 32.3 |
| 3 | 14 | 22.6 |
| 4 | 5 | 8.1 |
| 5 | 1 | 1.6 |
| 6 | 4 | 6.5 |
Association of clinical factors with PFS in immunotherapy-treated patients
At the data cutoff point (February 4, 2023), 28 patients were evaluable for tumor response. The median follow-up duration was 25.85 months (95% CI: 24.31–27.47). The mPFS post-immunotherapy was 282 days, and the mOS was 1,012 days (Figure 1). The data maturity for PFS was sufficient, while that for OS was not. Therefore, the study focused mainly on analyzing the PFS.
There was no significant difference in PFS between the patients with different subtypes of malignant melanoma who received immunotherapy. The mPFS for the acral subtype, mucosal subtype, and cutaneous subtype groups was 359, 206, and 97 days, respectively (Figure 2).
The patients had 1–6 metastatic sites, and dichotomous analysis with 5 as the cutoff value revealed that patients with ≥5 metastatic sites had a significantly worse PFS [95% CI: 33–not available (NA), P=0.044] (Figure 3).
We analyzed the association between metastatic sites and immunotherapy efficacy and found that patients with liver or bone metastases had significantly shorter PFS (HR =2.12, 95% CI: 1.08–4.18, P=0.03 and HR =2.71, 95% CI: 1.16–6.36, P=0.02, respectively) (Figures 4,5).
The study analyzed the relationship between lymphocyte count, NLR, C-reactive protein (CRP) level, albumin level, lactate dehydrogenase level, and immunotherapy-related PFS. It was found that lymphocyte count, CRP level, and lactate dehydrogenase level were not associated with PFS (Figure 6). Analysis with 3 as the cutoff value for NLR indicated that patients with an NLR ≥3 had shorter immunotherapy-related PFS (HR =2.01, 95% CI: 1.03–3.92, P=0.04). In addition, patients with abnormal albumin levels also had a shorter PFS (HR =2.11, 95% CI: 1.09–4.09, P=0.02) (Figures 6,7).
All 62 patients received immunotherapy, and 17 patients received chemotherapy, but the combination regimens varied widely. Further analysis showed that the PFS was significantly prolonged in patients administered immunotherapy combined with chemotherapy (HR =0.35, 95% CI: 0.14–0.90, P=0.02) (Figures 8,9).
Genetic testing
The most frequently altered genes in the 62 patients who had evaluable NGS results are included in Figure 10. NRAS, CDKN2A, KIT, CDK4, and MDM2 were the most commonly altered genes, with respective alteration frequencies of 22.6%, 17.7%, 16.1%, 14.5%, and 14.5%.
To identify prognostic genetic biomarkers, we analyzed the relationship between each high-frequency mutation/CNV (counts ≥4) and PFS (Figure 11). Only the KMT2A mutation was found to be significantly associated with worse immunotherapy efficacy (HR =3.48, 95% CI: 1.20–10.10, P=0.01); meanwhile, mutations of MYC and MCL1 were non-significantly associated with immunotherapy efficacy (P<0.10) (Figure 12). EGFR mutation and MDM2 amplification were not associated with immunotherapy-related PFS.
We examined the relationship between MDM2 amplification and the clinical factors associated with the efficacy of immunotherapy identified in previous analyses and found that the majority of patients with MDM2 amplification received immune-combination chemotherapy (P=0.10) (Figure 13). Further stratified analysis revealed that patients with MDM2 amplification and not treated with chemotherapy had the shortest PFS; meanwhile, those treated with a combination of immunotherapy and chemotherapy had a significantly prolonged PFS (Figure 14). This may explain why PFS was not shortened with immunotherapy in patients with MDM2 amplification. In addition, there was no significant survival difference between patients with TMB-high and TMB-low status (Figure 15).
Discussion
With the development of immunotherapy, the survival rate of patients with advanced malignant melanoma has improved. However, along with enhanced efficacy, the incidence of adverse events related to ICIs is also increasing. Although most ICI-related adverse events are mild, treatment-related deaths are not uncommon (20), especially in dual immunotherapy (21,22). A portion of patients develop hyperprogression within a short time after immunotherapy, and this entails high mortality and a poor prognosis.
Given that immunotherapy may be associated with low response rates, significant toxicity, and a risk of rapid progression in a portion of patients in the short term, it is critical to find novel biomarkers that can predict treatment outcomes and screen patients most likely to respond to treatment. In this study, we analyzed the correlation between clinical factors, blood biomarkers, genetic features, and immunotherapy-related PFS. We found that ≥5 metastatic sites, liver metastasis, bone metastasis, an NLR ≥3, abnormal albumin levels, and KMT2A mutation were biomarkers for predicting the efficacy of immunotherapy in patients with advanced melanoma.
The NLR, an inflammatory marker, is considered to be associated with poor prognosis in various solid tumors (23). Neutrophils induce tumor angiogenesis and promote tumor cell proliferation, metastasis, and invasion through the expression of proangiogenic factors and chemokines (24). In addition, neutrophils can produce neutrophil extracellular traps, whose components can directly stimulate tumor cell migration and invasion when released in the tumor microenvironment (25). Recent studies have shown that programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression on tumor-infiltrating neutrophils can also inhibit T-lymphocyte activation (26).
Lymphocytes are involved in antitumor response through cellular and humoral immunity, and lymphopenia can promote immune tolerance and escape (27). Baseline NLR is a simple, cost-effective, and easily obtainable biomarker, but the optimal cutoff value remains unclear, and in our study, the cutoff employed was 3. Future clinical trials should further clarify the role of NLR in the prediction of immunotherapy efficacy and establish the optimal critical value for baseline NLR in order to select appropriate populations for immunotherapy.
Liver metastasis may diminish the systemic efficacy of immunotherapy. Patients with melanoma and liver metastases but no other organ metastasis exhibit a weaker response to immunotherapy than do those without liver metastasis (28,29). In a preclinical study using mouse models, the number of tumor-specific CD8+ T cells in the peripheral blood of mice with colorectal cancer and liver metastasis was lower than in those without liver metastasis. In the liver, activated antigen-specific Fas+CD8+ T cells undergo apoptosis after interacting with FasL+CD11b+F4/80+ monocyte-derived macrophages, transforming the liver into an “immunosuppressive filter”. Patients with liver metastasis have a reduced number of peripheral blood T cells, and the cell diversity and function are weakened. Thus, liver metastasis can lead to acquired immunotherapy resistance through CD8+ T-cell deficiency (30). Our findings also suggest that liver metastasis is associated with poor prognosis and is an independent predictor of immunotherapy-related PFS.
Previous studies have suggested that bone metastases (31), hypoalbuminemia (32), and the number of metastatic sites at baseline (33) are associated with poor prognosis in patients with tumors. Our study, which analyzed the association of clinical data, blood samples, and other factors with immunotherapy-related PFS, produced findings consistent with these studies.
KMT2A, a member of the immune epigenetic factor, is generally considered to be associated with poor prognosis in patients with acute myelocytic leukemia or acute lymphoblastic leukemia (34), but it has been less studied in other tumor types. In this study, KMT2A mutation was associated with worse immunotherapy efficacy. One study found that KMT2A regulates the growth of melanoma cells by targeting hTERT-dependent signaling pathways and that its overexpression promotes the proliferation of melanoma cells, resulting in poor prognosis in patients with melanoma (35). This suggests that the KMT2A/hTERT signaling pathway may be used to find potential therapeutic targets for melanoma.
MDM2 is an oncogene whose core function is to inhibit the antioncogene p53. When MDM2 is amplified, it promotes the proteasomal degradation of p53, which facilitates tumorigenesis. ICIs can increase the production of interferon-γ (IFN-γ) at the tumor site (36), and IFN-γ upregulates the expression of MDM2, which suggests that the IFN-γ-MDM2-p53 axis may mediate the occurrence of hyperprogression (37). Interestingly, MDM2 amplification was not associated with treatment efficacy in our study. This may be due to the fact that the majority of patients with the MDM2 mutation in this study received combined chemotherapy. In the synergistic mechanism of the chemotherapy-immunotherapy regimen, chemotherapy enhances antitumor immunity by inhibiting tumor-induced immunosuppression, inducing immune tumor cell apoptosis, activating the innate immune system, and directly stimulating T cells or depleting immunosuppressive cells. Immunotherapy maintains the induction of chemotherapy and improves patients’ prognosis (38,39). The poor efficacy of ICI monotherapy in patients with advanced melanoma can be synergistically enhanced through combination with chemotherapy drugs to achieve a greater antitumor effect. Multiple studies have confirmed that chemotherapy combined with immunotherapy can significantly improve the survival time and disease control rate of patients with advanced melanoma (40,41). Consistent with previous research, our observational results indicated that ICI-based combination chemotherapy may partially counteract the potential adverse effect of MDM2 amplification and yield favorable immunotherapeutic outcomes in advanced melanoma patients. Further large-scale prospective investigations are warranted to validate this preliminary conclusion.
Conclusions
A biomarker model established in this study through an examination of clinical factors, blood biomarkers, and genetic characteristics may provide a basis for identifying an advanced melanoma population suited to immunotherapy. Although the sample size of this study was relatively small, we preliminarily identified that a number of metastatic sites ≥5, liver metastasis, bone metastasis, NLR ≥3, abnormal albumin level, and KMT2A mutation may be prognostic biomarkers for the efficacy of immunotherapy in patients with advanced melanoma. Of these, NLR ≥3 and the presence of liver metastases were found to be independent predictors.
Acknowledgments
None.
Footnote
Reporting Checklist: The authors have completed the REMARK reporting checklist. Available at https://tcr.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/tcr-2026-0957/rc
Data Sharing Statement: Available at https://tcr.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/tcr-2026-0957/dss
Peer Review File: Available at https://tcr.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/tcr-2026-0957/prf
Funding: This work was supported by
Conflicts of Interest: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form (available at https://tcr.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/tcr-2026-0957/coif). F.W. is from Nanjing Geneseeq Technology Inc., Nanjing, China. The other authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.
Ethical Statement: The authors are accountable for all aspects of the work in ensuring that questions related to the accuracy or integrity of any part of the work are appropriately investigated and resolved. The study was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki and its subsequent amendments. The study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Medical School, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China (No. 2022-170-02) and informed consent was taken from all the patients
Open Access Statement: This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), which permits the non-commercial replication and distribution of the article with the strict proviso that no changes or edits are made and the original work is properly cited (including links to both the formal publication through the relevant DOI and the license). See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
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(English Language Editor: J. Gray)


